Back on March 18, I tried to predict the number of runs scored by the Mets based on anticipated number of games played for each of their players as well as their historical average. My estimate was 756 runs which I said corresponded to about 84 wins.
Specifically, I predicted the following number of runs scored for the top 11 players: Wright (99), Bay (93), Reyes (89), Davis (74), Pagan (70), Beltran (61), Murphy (54), Hairston (29), Harris (29), Thole (21), Paulino (17). I then estimated 120 additional runs from the remaining reserves.
How did I do? Well, first off, the team scored 715 runs and won only 77 games. Apparently the estimate was way high as only one team in the NL - St Louis scored more than 756. The Mets were actually 5th in the league in runs scored.
As for the players, the above players ended with the following number of runs scored: Wright (60), Bay (59), Reyes (101), Davis (20), Pagan (68), Beltran (61), Murphy (49), Hairston (20), Harris (36), Thole (22), Paulino (19). Amazingly, I was within 5 runs on 5 players and within 10 runs on 7. My biggest misses were obviously Wright and Ike who both got injured. Reyes I underestimated even thought I was pretty much right on with the number of games he would play (130 vs actual 126).
Losing both Wright and Ike hurt. But equally as important was the brutal play of Bay all season, the midseason trade of Beltran and losing Murphy for the final 50 games. I know that the offense actually overachieved a little (and that the pitching staff has a lot of blood on their hands), but can you imagine what they could have done if things had gone a little better? Man, they could have been special.
Of course, all actions have an opposite reaction. Losing Ike, Wright, Murphy and Beltran meant that Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner, Nick Evans, and Jason Pridie received some major playing times. I don't think the latter two will have a long term place with the team (and the jury is still out on Turner), but Duda and Tejada showed they could play (.288 combined average over 629 at bats, 10 hr, 86 rbi) and will probably be in the lineup on Opening Day 2012.
I am fairly optimistic about what this offense can do in 2012 (of course, if we lose Reyes and both Bay Wright never recover, then we will be in trouble) and can only hope that Johan comes back strong, Gee and Dickey have equally impressive seasons, Niese develops into the strong #2 we think he can be and either Capuano or Young slide in at #5 and relegate Pelf to the bullpen. Even with a lower payroll I think we can win 82 games next year.
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