Tuesday, July 20, 2010

17 years...Wow

I understand that many of my readers are not hockey fans, so I will ask you to think about the following sentence as if we were talking about an athlete from another sport: Ilya Kovalchuk just signed a 17-year deal with the New Jersey Devils worth $105 million. Let me write that again so we are sure there is no mistake - Kovalchuk just signed a 17 year deal. That is unfathomable to comprehend. After all, here are some things that will happen when (if) this deal is completed:
  • I will be 47
  • My daughter will be 18
  • I will have acquired 10k+ gray hairs, which I will then go on to lose
  • 4 World Cups will have been played
  • The Devils will have gone through 8-9 coaches
  • Kovalchuk will be 44
And hopefully:
  • Kovalchuk will have scored 400+ goals
  • New Jersey will have won 1-2 Stanley Cups

A 17-year deal is a ridiculous commitment. Even if Kovalchuk continues to be a premier goal scorer until the age of 35, he will still have 9 years left on his contract.

Tom Gulitti has all the contract details on his blog. Basically, Kovalchuk will get $6 million for the first two years and then will receiver no less than $10.5 million for the next 6 years. The Devils will be on the hook for only $550k for each of the final 6 years. Unfortunately in today's NHL, the only way to get around the salary cap and remain competitive (ie - have multiple big name guys) is to sign long term contracts that are back weighted (see Alex Ovechkin, Marian Hossa, Rick DiPietro).

Devils GM Lou Lamoriello is one of the shrewdest guys in the business. He has been able to keep this franchise competitive even with the losses of Stevens, Niedermayer, Rafalski and Daneyko (to name only a few), so I will talk myself into trusting his judgment on this one. That being said, this contract will not go without any consequences. With a salary cap of ~$57 and a roster of around 20 players, one guy earning $11.5 million does now allow for a lot of flexibility. We have heard how the other 9 guys on the Heat will have to be minimum salary guys - that works for the basketball because you can win with 3 guys. That does not work in the hockey though because only a few members of the team will be on the ice for more than 1/3 of the game. To win in the NHL, you need a few stars and a lot of average guys.

Something is going to have to give in New Jersey. The Devils best player, Zach Parise is a restricted free agent after this year and an unrestricted free agent in two years. He is in line for a big pay day - the Kovalchuk signing means there is a good possibility he doesn't get it from the Devils. However, the more I think about it, the more I realize that Patrick Elias and Martin Brodeur are the key guys in this equation. Elias has 3 years left on his contract in which he will be paid $5 million a year (down from $6 million this year) while Brodeur has 2 years left on his contract in which he will be paid $5.2 million a year. That is over $10 million in cap space that will be coming off the board in the next 3 years. Don't think that it is just a coincidence that Kovalchuk's salary goes up the year after Marty's current contract is over. I have to believe that the Devils are preparing themselves for the post-Marty era. If they can develop a young goalie over the next two years and ride him once Marty retires, then there is going to be a lot of money for Parise. With Kovalchuk and hopefully Parise on board for the next decade, don't expect this team to be the same as it was during it's dynasty days.

Let's just hope more exciting will equal more Stanley Cups because I don't want to be 47 and not had a Stanley Cup since I was 23.

1 comment:

  1. I think (hope) Jason Arnott's return is also a key. We've been missing that big centerman.

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