A four team five player trade was announced yesterday. This is the sort of thing I normally am not overly excited about, but since it involved my Nets, it's definitely something I need to talk about.
First off, I think the trade actually benefits all four teams, which is a rare occurrence in the NBA. Let's start with the Hornets who traded Darren Collison and James Posey to Indiana. Collison is worthy of being a starter in the league and was a big reason why the Hornets were shopping Chris Paul in the offseason. By shipping him out of town, I think it is a clear sign that they are planning to keep Paul and try to build a contender around him. In return they acquired Trevor Ariza from the Rockets, who instantly solidifies the defense and gives Paul someone to grow with. The Rockets then acquired Courtney Lee from the Nets. At first it appeared that they drew the short straw in this trade, but I respect GM Darryl Morey and assume that he knows what he is doing. The big reason he was not afraid to trade Ariza, a player who they overpaid for last year, was because they were over the salary cap for the upcoming season. While Lee isn't a world beater, he should fit nicely alongside Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin (assuming Martin can play some Small Forward) in a starting lineup that is suddenly getting smaller while the rest of the league gets bigger. The final piece to the deal was Troy Murphy being shipped from Indiana to New Jersey.
Overall, I think it is a good deal for them. In Murphy, they are acquiring a starting power forward who averaged 14.6 points and 10.2 rebounds a game last year. I've never been a fan of him personally (being a Notre Dame grad and hailing from nearby Sparta, NJ), but the numbers don't lie - only 11 other players in the league can say that they averaged a double-double per game. I think he can be a nice asset to the team in the short-term, so much that they should win 30-35 games this season. In the bottom heavy East, 38 might get you into the playoffs, so if they can just reverse some of their luck from last year, who knows what can happen.
Getting back to the trade - it had been speculated for a few weeks now that the Nets would be using their depth at shooting guard to acquire a PF. Most thought that Terrence Williams would be the one to leave town, not because the Nets don't like him but because he could fetch the most in return. In trading Lee, they give up an inexpensive asset (2010 salary: $2.2 million), but certainly not an irreplaceable asset. Not only do I think Anthony Morrow can make this team better than they were last year, but keeping T-Will is a huge coop by management.
Still, even with the above, I feel a little uneasy about the trade and the fact that Murphy is in the last year of his contract. Now I know most fans will disagree. They will say that his presence allows Derrick Favors to sit the bench and develop. They will say that his contract is an asset that makes him a valuable trade chip during the season. They say that he will help him win games more. I agree with all the above, I really do. But I can't help think that there is a lot of uncertainty with the whole plan. In order for this trade to be successful in the long run, they will need to do one of three things - 1) make the playoffs 2) turn Murphy into a long term commodity at the trading deadline 3) clear cap space AND sign Carmelo in the off-season.
We can discuss the first until we turn blue in the face (I prefer to be optimistic and think they have an outside shot), but think the second two are the key points. If they are out of the playoff hunt and trade Murphy, we need to get a player in return that has several years on his contract and who can help us win in 2-3 years. The problem is that those players are normally coveted by other teams and hard to pry away. If they don't acquire a long term asset, then at the very least clearing his contract will allow them to have ~$15 million next year to spend on Carmelo. The problem with this however is the same as with what happened this year with LeBron. The Nets won't be the only team going hard after Melo. If we don't sign or trade for him, then what? We'll have the same roster and will be another year older. That doesn't bode well for Prokhorov's 5 year championship plan.
So yeah, I like the trade right now. We won't be winning less than 25 games which is a 100% improvement from last year. But in order for it to be a good move, they need a few more things to go there way.
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While I'm talking NJ sports, a quick word on the Ilya Kovalchuk saga. As most of you know, an arbitrator rejected Kovalchuk's deal and he is now a free agent again. I'm not overly worried, because I have this sense that they will be able to work out another deal. The reasons are in my mind two-fold. First, he seemed genuinely happy to be with the Devils and how can one not be? I know, I get it - Newark sucks. But when you come from an organization like Atlanta, going to one with the commitment to excellence like the Devils is no doubt refreshing. Second, if he cares at all about his image, then doesn't he HAVE to re-sign? I mean, this guy was turning down big money from both Atlanta and LA to sign with the Devils, saying along the way that it wasn't about the money. So if you have a deal in place with one team for a crapload of money and it falls through for no fault of your own or the team, and you end up signing with another team, then isn't just about the money? It definitely seems that way to me. So if he wants to save face, then I think he encourages his agent to get a new deal with the Devils done.
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