The Stanley Cup Finals might be in full swing, but my boys JWM and Duker can't help but think about the NHL Draft (ok, ok, really they are obsessed). In the coming weeks, they will be joining me to do our first JerseySounder mock NHL draft (apparently this is what happens when your team misses the playoffs for the first time in 15 years). Prior to that we wanted to take the opportunity to talk about the Devils and their needs. The conversation was free-flowing over email. I threw some comments in here and there, but mostly this is all JWM and Duker.
Where do the Devils have the greatest need? Is it first line center? Is it a #1 defenseman? Is it the heir apparent to Marty? Hopefully Marty can last another year or two (that aside from the fact there aren't any goaltenders that rank in the top 20 of the 2011 draft - If need be a replacement to Marty can be found after the first round). Travis Zajac can return to form if and when Zach Parise returns to his left wing the chemistry those two have is much better than the Zajac-Kovalchuk combo. So that leaves us looking at #1 defensemen Lou has had a good stretch of turning lemons into lemonade but expecting Andy Greene to be elite may be a bridge to far (yes that was two cliches one sentence). So there's the lock if Adam Larsson is available - Lou sprints to the podium shout Larson's name and drops the mic on the ground like the end of a Chris Rock HBO special. But what about the second tier d-men Ryan Murphy and Dougie Hamilton should they be drafted before a Sean Couturier or a Gabriel Landeskog? The Devils need at D should be weighted accordingly for this draft.
Let's assume that Parise is on the team long-term...
My biggest problem with the Devils' personnel has been the need to identify a role for a particular player based on 1 skill. I think that the idea of a shut-down line is dead
and gone unless that line can score 10-15 goals apiece. A guy like Mike Green on D is a liability despite the offense he brings (I have to admit, this is a major letdown. I have had him on my fantasy team recently and love Green. When the media was considering whether to trade Brodeur, the Caps came up as a possibility and I would have jumped at it). They need to buck the trend of 1 dimensional players. I loved John Madden (me too) but his kind is simply less valuable anymore. Ryan Kesler is the Canucks' MVP because he's amazing on both ends of the ice. He was always a strong defensive forward and now he puts up a ton of points as well. Same thing for Datsyuk in Detroit.
Picking 4th carries a lot of expectations with it, not falling on your ass being one of them. I think the best way to hit a home run with the pick (or at least a triple depending on your view of the talent in the draft) is to find the best all around player. And for what it's worth, I think the Devils really need that player to be a defenseman, particularly one named Adam Larsson. For years they have been relying on a ragtag corps of defenders who are mostly adequate and sometimes really good (does anyone else remember Jonny Oduya's up-ice rushes?). Andy Greene is not a true number 1 defenseman, nor does he even belong on the top pairing. But we have come to rely on him to do this even when it's simply not in his wheelhouse. Neither was Paul Martin. There have been a lot of very polished lemons the last few years, but lemons nonetheless. Mike Mottau was decent but he's still just Mike Mottau at the end of the day.
I still think we have some surprising depth at forward, which is not to say that Couturier, Ryan Strome or Jonathan Huberdeau wouldn't be great assets, but I just think that good, big, defensemen that can provide offense and defense while not making you nervous every time they're on the ice are pretty rare in the NHL. I think Larsson will fit that bill better than anyone available and any team that passes on him is missing something special.
We are in agreement that Adam Larsson is the homerun draft pick the Devils need. However, Larsson is a solid top three draft projection as just submitted by International Scouting Services (ISS).
My question now would be, what will the Devils do if Larsson is drafted prior to their fourth pick? (yes, that is the question. If Larsson is so amazing, then why would he be still available?) In most drafts there usually is a best overall defenseman, then a top offensive defenseman, and a top defensive defenseman. Murphy is your top offensive d-man and Hamilton is the top defensive d-man. Where should the team go?
Murphy's only downside is his size 5'10", however Jon Merrill is 6'3" so a Devils top D-pair
of Merrill and Murphy in 3 years would be pretty awesome. I'm not sold on Hamilton only because I don't want waste a #4 pick on a wrecking ball. So if Larson is drafted it comes down to a choice of Murphy vs. forwards Couturier, Landeskog, Mika Zibanejad, and Strome. It seems Murphy is pick the Devils will make with Larsson gone.
That's surprising to me since the weeks prior to writing this I was pushing hard for Couturier.
I would be very disappointed if they chose Zibanejad at 4. He might end up being top 10 worthy, but not top 5. (plus, I would have a terrible time with his name. If he does go to NJ, then I would have to nickname him Zibby)
The more I think about it, the more I've convinced myself that Larsson could be available at 4 (by the way, I loved your suggestion for Lou's selection, only it needs to be tinged with Chappelle: "we, the people of the Devils delegation, select with the 4th pick, the rza, the
gza, ol dirty bastard and Adam Larsson. out, bitches." Then drop the mic at Gary Bettman's
feet and walk away). (I think I prefer Lou asking Bettman if he has to choke a bitch)
Ok,ok, so what about trading down if Larsson is gone? Some one would want one of those Forwards, right?
I think there could be some really good value at D in the 10-15 range, but I'm not sure if it's worth trading down from #4 to get it, unless we could end up with a second first round pick. Nathan Beaulieu and Jamieson Oleksiak will probably both end up as mid-first round picks that turn out to be good pros. Maybe a ceiling of B, which isn't really saying much, but those are still the guys you win cups with.
I don't think it is that much of a stretch to assume Larsson could fall to the Devils. The Oilers are taking Ryan Nugent Hopkins (RNH) with the first pick to boost Taylor Hall's production. The Avalanche traded one of their better offensive players (Chris Stewart) for Erik Johnson so they will probably use this draft to restore their front line, and the Panthers drafted a the #1 defenseman last year (Erik Gudbranson) and still have nothing in their forward corps. Considering those scenarios I could easily see Larson falling to the Devs.
However, I think it best to plan for a rainy day. My new fear with Couturier is that he may be another version of James Van Riemsdyk. That may not be that bad, but I would rather have the pick be less of a work in progress. I think Huberdeau, and RNH are the top two if Larson is taken Landeskog will fall leaving the Devils with an interesting choice. Why not take Murphy if the defense is a glaring hole that needs to be fixed?
My concern with Oleksak was his numbers weren't that impressive at Northeastern especially when you compare him to fellow NCAA freshman defenseman Jon Merrill.
Finally my last argument for Murphy as plan B for the #4 pick is here at the 3:00 mark:
Ok, so Murphy looks pretty slick, but I go back to my concern from before: I don't think I
want a one dimensional player picked that high unless they are far and away better at that one thing than anybody else. Maybe Murphy falls into that category, maybe not. His size doesn't bother me, at all, just his ability to play defense. Don Cherry (I get CBC and refuse to watch hockey on versus, but I always wonder how much sway Cherry still holds. It's obvious you hold him in high esteem) kept saying he was really smart, so maybe that translates well to a good two-way game, but if he can only succeed by taking cues from his coach, how will he handle the Devils' coaching merry-go-round?
Edmonton takes the Nugent-Hopkins to play with Hall. Incidentally, I wouldn't take him with the 1st pick, but that's me. I think the Avs will take Landeskog as a power winger to play alongside either Stastny or Duchene...that or they trade the pick to Ottawa so they can draft him. I do think the Avs will use their second pick (mid-first round) to grab a defenseman, though. I think Florida will just take the flashiest key dangling in front of them, which will probably be Huberdeau (probably not the worst thing in the world).
Last thought: Strome should go top 10, but top 5 is a stretch. One of the things that I caught that I really liked in his bio on Fire and Ice was that he played a lot of lacrosse growing up. It makes me think of Joe Nieuwendyk and Adam Oates, 2 amazing face-off guys, both of whom grew up playing a lot of lacrosse (coincidentally, against each other). The Devils have a need for consistent face-off wins.
So I think it's safe to say that we beat this topic to death and after all is said and done we agree the Devils not only should draft Adam Larsson but there is a high probability they will get him. Plan B seems up for debate but either way Devils will get an impact player.
Ok, I'm jumping in at the end after everything has been thoroughly dissected. I can't say that I know as much about the Devils team needs as you guys (not to mention I don't know squat about any of these guys), but I obviously think Larsson is the guy. When I think of the glory years, the obvious thing that comes to mind was our defense. We've lost so many guys over the years and finally when Lou realized we that the cupboard was bare, he decided to overpay for a few guys that didn't work out. We are entering a new phase in our history but instead of just relying on Parise and Kovy, we need to get back to basics and play some defense.
Interestingly enough, the last time we drafted in the top 10 was 1991 when they picked a slick skating defenseman out of Kamloops. He subsequently went on to a Hall of Fame career. It would be extremely premature to suggest Larsson is that type of talent, but it's interesting to note.
Aside from defense, I think goaltending is the area of highest importance. I don't want to say it's of highest need right now, because Marty still has a year or two, but I think it's important to decide on a succession plan. We can't be left without a plan when Marty rides off into the sunset. Ideally I would love to sign a veteran ala Hedburg for a year or two before handing over the reigns to someone green. I don't want to ever overpay for a free agent goalie, but at the same time, I'm not sure we want to kill some young kid because of all the expectations. we have all seen how Elway's, Marino's, Ripken's and Roy's replacements did. It's hard to replace a legend. This isn't the year to draft a goalie in the first round, but it might not be a terrible idea to take one in the 2nd or 3rd round and see what you got.
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