Email forum: Mets Projections

Every once in awhile I will post some of the email discussion that I have with my BU boys in this blog. Today's topic is projected stats for the Mets based on the first third of the season...

Yo guys-
As you know, I like to do this every once in a while. The Mets have now played 57 games...here is what they are on pace for:

-85 wins
-reyes: 91runs, 40sb, 28 doub, 11 trip
-bay: 96runs, 40 doub, 11 trip, 9 hr, 68 rbi, 156 k, 22 sb
-davis: 77runs, 31 doub, 17 hr, 51 rbi
-wright: 82runs, 37 doub, 28 hr, 110 rbi, 99 walks, 196 k, 28 sb
-pagan: 91runs, 28 sb, 11 hr, 71 rbi,
-barajas: 71runs, 28 doub, 31 hr,. 85 rbi
-frenchy: 77runs, 28 doub, 17 hr, 94 rbi, 17 sb

-pelfrey: 23-3, 151 k
-johan: 11-6, 162 k

ok, so now look at these numbers. Ignoring batting average and strikeouts (for Wright at least), I would have to say that I would be happy with Wright's, Frenchy's, Barajass and Pagan's stats - they are all that we could hope for. Ikes stats don't jump out, but considering our other options and that he is a flat out rookie, you have to be ok with those too. Bays power numbers are not good, but he is on pace for 190 hits..

Obviously Pelf won't win 23 games, but his pace is impressive

Also, coming into the season, would you be ok if I told you the Mets would go 85-77?

[Stollercoaster] No, I would not be happy with 85 wins coming into the season. The expectation should be to make the playoffs and that won't do it. With the guys they have they should be expected to win over 90 and make the playoffs. They need to win a series on the road and build from there.



[C-buns] I like your analysis. Here is mine, in terms of expectations:

Offense:
Overall, I am most happy with Barajas/Blanco and Pagan. They have exceeded expectations. Everyone else is either meeting expectations (Wright, Bay, Davis, Frenchy, the bench) or not meeting expectations (Reyes, Castillo). So based on 2 positions exceeded, 5 meeting, and 2 failing, the offense as a whole is Meeting Expectations.

Pitching:
Overall, I am most happy with Santana, Pelfrey, Dickey, and Feliciano. They have exceeded expectations. Meeting my expectations are Neise, Takahashi, Mejia, Krod (Let's stop calling him "K-Rod" because he's not), Nieve, and Valdez. Failing expectations are Maine and Perez. I'm giving incompletes to Igarashi, Acosta, and Dessens, because they simply don't have enough IP to make a judgement at this point. So the pitching as a whole is exceeding my expectations.

Overall:
The team is slightly exceeding expectations. On opening day, I was expecting approximately a .500 team through the first couple of months, considering the very difficult May schedule, Beltran's injury, and not knowing when Reyes would return.

Future expectations:
I think they can win 88 games this year. In other words, I think they can win a higher % of games than they already have. Why? Because I think getting Beltran will be a boost. And I think they will be buyers of a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. I think Reyes picks things up. But I think Barajas slows down a bit. Those 2 basically cancel each other out offensively. So I think the offense performs like it has been. I think Pelfrey slows down a bit. But I think the addition of another starting pitcher keeps the rotation strong, with Takahashi resuming his role as long man in the pen. And my biggest concern in Mr. Krod. He is this team's version of John Franco, which means we will be on the edge of our seats every time he comes in, we'll sneak out of most games with a win. And there will be some big blown saves that makes us dislike the guy because of his overconfidence and selfishness.