I am normally a huge fan of the baseball Hot Stove, as it is always fun to imagine big name players switching teams. As a Mets fan I have become accustomed to big bucks being thrown around to free agents, so this year feels a lot different.
We all know the sorry state the Mets are in right now. For the 2011 season, without signing another player, they have about $130 million tied up with - with most of the money coming from the huge salaries paid to Johan Santana ($24m), Carlos Beltran($19m), Frankie Rodriguez($12m), Jason Bay($8m), Oliver Perez($12m), David Wright($10m) and Jose Reyes($11m). For most teams, a large payroll equals success as they don't need to be creative with their business plan- they just overspend in order to get the best players. Well, as we all know, the Mets aren't like most teams. They spend money on the wrong guys and of course never have any luck.
New GM Sandy Alderson has a plan to rebuild this team. He will not spend this offseason to fill the holes. He feels that in order for the team to be successful moving forward that they must shed some of the bad weight and rebuild their core. (Also, I'm not sure how much money Wilpon is letting him spend after the whole Madoff fiasco).
Alderson is dedicated to evaluating all potential trades or signings but appears right now to be disciplined enough to know that 95% of them aren't in the best interest of the team. Realizing that the team won't be making a huge splash in free agency this year, the only way to change the team before most of the contracts come off the books in 2012 is through trade. The problem we are finding is that we won't be able to get even 60cents on the dollar for any trade until June when we are well out of the playoff hunt. I truly believe that Beltran and Reyes could both be moved, but their recent injuries are enough to scare off any potential buyers. It's not that buyers don't exist, it's just that they don't exist for what the Mets want. So Alderson and the organization is going to have to keep Beltran in Flushing for now, hope that he plays injury free and then trade him at the deadline. Same goes for Reyes, who because of Wilmer Flores I think is expendable. I don't think Wright, Bay or Santana are going anywhere. As for Ollie Perez and Luis Castillo - unless we take on an equally terrible contract like Carlos Zambrano, sort of like last year's Carlos Silva-Milton Bradley trade, they are not going anywhere.
When I look at the current roster I can pencil in starters at most position. It may not be the best lineup in the league (or the division, or the city or the East Coast), but on any given day I think it can win. With a limited budget the only place I see us spending money on is pitching. It looks like we might sign a veteran pitcher coming off surgery or a down year to a short-term contract (ala Kevin Millwood, Jeff Francis, Chris Young) to help offset the loss of Johan. After that I then look for Sandy to work feverishly to bring in some pieces for the bullpen. The principle behind Moneyball is not to spend no money; but rather it's to find areas that are being under utilized and make them your strength: be good at something others are not. While most people around the game know the importance of a bullpen, few do anything about it. I see this as an area where the Mets can spend minimal money and get maximum return. I know it won't be the difference between 75 and 85 wins this year, but it might be the difference in 85 and 88 wins a few years down the line.
I will continue to go to metsblog.com on a daily basis to read the rumors, but I do not expect to be blown away by anything I read. After all, here is the list of rumored players on the first page of metsblog.com this morning: Ronny Paulino, Freddy Garcia, Russel Martin, Fred Lewis, Chris Young, Jeff Francis and DJ Carrasco. Not exactly Murderers Row, but something that bodes well for the long-term future of the team.
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