In light of the Devils' recent ass-kickery, I've been thinking about expectations. I normally hate placing expectations on anything, but it is a normal part of being a sports fan. Expectations are sometimes rewarding, sometimes painful, but always a part of it.
For the Devils, I always expect a playoff berth. For Kovy Kovalchuk, I expect 40 goals. For Marty Brodeur, I expect 40 wins. Needless to say, I have been extremely disappointed the last few months, hence the problem with placing expectations (although this could also be representative of my personal mantra "Aim Low," rather than being a true statistical norm). So after meeting disappointment head on, I changed my expectations. I began reading up on the big draft prospects for this year, with the expectation of a top 5 pick. I spent a lot of time thinking about the merits of taking a defenseman with the number 1 pick rather than a big-time playmaker IF they actually scored that pick, which seemed very possible until recently (by the way, I think it's to big a risk to take a defenseman with the top selection; the expectations are too high and just too much variability in the success of young d - but that's something for another post).
I was OK with this. I understood the team's needs as well as my fan needs for the future. With a plan in place, I was more than willing to sacrifice this season for the first pick in the draft, which was something this team has never had but could definitely use. But now the Devs have spent 2011 being the best team in the world. Yes, I used the words Best, World and Devils in the same sentence. The problem is that they dug themselves such a massive hole that even though they are 15-1-2 in their last 18 games (32 out of a possible 36 points), they are still sitting in 27th place in the league, 13th in the east. Is it realistic to think they could make the playoffs? Is it more realistic to think this amazing play has to end and they will be playing golf the day after the season ends?
I just don't know what to think. No, that's not really true. I think this is fucking amazing. I think that Kovy Kovalchuk is becoming everything we wanted him to be. The problem is that going forward, I don't know how to feel about it. I really was looking forward to jettisoning some trash contracts and picking up an NHL-ready teenager in the draft. The last thing I want is a mediocre draft pick and/or a first round playoff exit. That's how winning really equals losing. So I just don't know...
That said, I'd like to try to make some predictions about some of the players and team at large going forward. Probably the most entertaining way of doing this is in the form of over/unders. I'll set some and give my thoughts. Anyone else should comment and add to it, whether you agree or disagree. So in no particular order...
*The Devils have 23 games remaining. All offensive stats are shown as Goals/Assists/Points.
Ilya Kovy Kovalchuk
Current: 21/20/41
O/U: 35.5 goals
Prediction: Over (37 goals). He is an amazing goal-scorer. I don't think there is enough time left to reach 40, but with the way he's been playing, 15 goals in 23 games is NOT out of the question.
Patrik Elias
Current: 14/32/46
O/U: 20.5 goals, 47.5 assists
Prediction: Under on goals (20), over on assists (51). I'm not sure what finally clicked with the line of Elias, Rolston and Zubrus, but my god has it been freakishly good. Let's call them the B+ line.
Brian Rolston
Current: 10/12/22
Dainius Zubrus
Current: 13/11/24
O/U: 21.5 goals each
Prediction: Under for both. Maybe 19 goals for Rolston and 20 goals for Zubrus? Maybe the other way around? Playing together, they should both finish at around the same totals. Realistically, they just aren't big time goal scorers and 9-12 goals for either one of them in the next 23 games might be a little much to ask.
Mattias Tedenby
Current: 7/7/14
O/U: 11.5 goals, 14.5 assists
Prediction: Over on goals (12) and under on assists (11). I think he can create enough offense on his own, but I don't think his line mates will do enough to significantly bump his assists. Plus, he's only been getting 3rd/4th line minutes, to say nothing of the stupid number of healthy scratches from coach turdbag. On another note, Tedenby has now made me question my next choice of jerseys. I was going to get a Travis Zajac jersey at some point, but crap is this kid fun to watch. Amazing hands and he's stupidly quick. Of course he's about 80 pounds soaking wet so he gets tossed around like a rag doll, but still. Put him on the Keith Tkachuk off-season work out plan and he'll be all set.
Nick Palmieri (?)
Current: 5/3/8
O/U: 9.5 goals, 10,000 fans that actually know who he is
Prediction: Over on goals (10) because he's been consistently playing with Kovy. He will get some scraps. Under on the number of fans. Seriously, who is this guy and why is he playing on the first line?
Martin Brodeur
Current: 13-19-2, 4 SO
O/U: 22.5 wins
Prediction: Over (25 wins).
Johan Hedberg
Current: 10-10-2, 1 SO
O/U: 15.5 wins
Prediction: I'm going to go with the under (14 wins).
Brodeur is getting healthy and should be back for the next game. IF he stays healthy then he should be getting 15-19 of the remaining starts. In order for Moose to hit the over he would need to start at least 6 more games AND win them all. Possible, but I would say unlikely. By the way, Hedberg has been awesome during their stretch. If Brodeur wasn't Brodeur, there would be a legitimate goalie controversy here.
Andy Greene
Current: 3/16/19
O/U: 4.5 goals, 21.5 assists
Prediction: Under on both (4 goals, 19 assists). He's been somewhat of a disappointment as he was supposed to be the main puck-moving defenseman in his UFA-to-be contract year.
O/U #2: $9 million/3 year contract in the off season.
Prediction: Take the over on the money. He should be putting up 30-35 or assists each season and he's competent defensively. Somebody will pay him $3 million a year based on what he should do rather than what he's done in his contract year. I'm not sure who and I'm not sure if it's a good deal. See: Finger, Jeff.
Travis Zajac
Current: 9/25/34
O/U: 13.5 goals, 34.5 assists
Prediction: Over on both (15 goals, 36 assists). He's playing with Kovy and that Nick guy, with first line and special teams minutes. I'm more sold on his ability to hit the assists mark, but I'm going to throw caution to the wind and say he can put up 6 goals in the next 23 games. Keep in mind that if Parise comes back, that can only help his case.
Zach Parise
Current: 12 games played, 3/3/6
O/U: 15.5 games played.
Prediction: Under. Note this is only for the regular season. They won't rush him back but if they are in serious contention for the playoffs then they will want to try to get him in a few games to get back in shape. Or, they start losing a few and just shut him down.
O/U #2: $50 million/8 year contract with the Devils in the off season.
Prediction: That's a little more than $6 million/year. I'm not sure Lou will be able to do a super long term deal, but the cap hit seems right and the overall dollars seem right, so I think it will get done. He has to be happy with how the team has recovered these last 6 weeks, even if they miss the playoffs, and he wants to play for a winner. Otherwise he could go to the Island for whatever retarded amount of money Chuck Wang would offer. Plus, Lou will offer him the C, a no-movement clause and at least 6 of the Devils Dancers or whatever they're called.
White/Salmela/Volchenkov
5/4/6 assists = 15 total
O/U: 18.5 assists combined
Prediction: Under (18). Let's not fool ourselves. They are who we thought the were.
Devils
25-30-4, 54 pts
GF: 128
GA: 161
Diff: -33
Currently 27th in the league.
O/U: 87.5 points.
Prediction: Over (88 points). That would be 34 of a possible 46 points. The way they've been playing, 17 wins out of 23 games is an easy bet. Can they really keep it up at that pace, though? I don't know. Would 88 be enough to squeak in to 8th place? Only time will tell.
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