Quarter Season Mets Review

Even though we are not officially done with the first quarter of games, I decided to give my take on the Mets this morning (partially since the next four days will be spent thinking about Sounders-Timbers). As of this morning, the Mets are 16-20 and in last place in the NL East, 7.5 games behind the Phillies. They are 8-9 on the road and a sad 8-11 at home. Their team ERA is 4.03 (11th in NL) and they have scored 148 runs (8th in the NL). Overall, I don't think this team is as terrible as we all thought it could be. Unfortunately it is not as good as we had all hoped. As a baseball team we are struggling to be mediocre.

The problem is that with all the off-the-field problems and the impending implosion of the team, things feel a lot worse than they are. So I would like to point out some reasons for optimism.

1. The pitching staff is not as terrible as we all may think. If you were to take a look at the rotation in it's current state (minus Young, plus Gee) you would try to hide your eyes. Pelfrey is 3-3 with a 5.74 ERA. Dickey is 1-4 with a 4.50 ERA. Niese is 1-4 with a 4.71 ERA. Capuano is 2-4 with a 4.97 ERA. Gee is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA. It is pretty terrible. However, if you examine the data a little more, you conclude that small sample size has something to do with the gaudy numbers. Simply put, four of the guys have started 6+ games...even one bad game is enough to kill your numbers. So, let's take a look at ERAs if we excluded their worst game of the season. Pelfrey -4.66; Niese - 3.32; Dickey 3.92; Capuano - 3.69. Those are definitely more respectable. Look, they don't need to be sub-3.00. A combined 3.50 ERA would be plenty fine

2. The bullpen had some rough moments early on, but lately has been on fire. Pedro Beato, although currently injured, has thrown 17 innings without giving up an earned run. Taylor Bucholz has been equally impressive, striking out 21 with a 1.45 ERA in just under 19 innings. K-Rod, although still giving many fans heart attacks has struck out 20 in a little under 17 innings and has only blown 1 save in 11 chances. Finally, my boy Jason Isringhausen, who I was praying wouldn't just be a side show, has been amazing. He has pitched in 12 games, has 6 holds and has provided some maturity to this young bullpen.

3. The guys seem to really respond well to Collins (who by the way has not been perfect with his decisions this year) and I don't think they are going to roll over like in previous years. Sure, things may not be going well, but I don't see them getting down on themselves. They will continue to fight.

4. Jose Reyes has flat out been AMAZING. I don't know if anyone else in baseball realizes it, but he is on pace for 220+ hits, 54 doubles, 54 stolen bases, 27 triples and a .318 average. My boy BUStoller told me they were unrealistic (thanks for that one) and obviously they are - if he was to have 51 doubles and 27 triples in a season it would simply be the best non-home run related season ever. Anyways, his amazing play has really confused our idea of what should happen with him. I think Sandy Alderson is in a position where he can cut ties with Reyes, but it is much more difficult for the fan base. When he is on, he is one of the best players in the game. While he has been amazing this year, all he needs is one injury to remind us just how fragile he is. IF he is moving on (which I think he is), this is the best scenario - help us stay relatively relevant for the first half of the season and then bring back a lot of good talent at the deadline.

5. Ike Davis is the real deal. He is still only 24 years old. He is only in his 2nd year. He is still hitting 5th/6th in our lineup, but Ike Davis is quietly becoming the best hitter we have. I think he learned a lot last season about how to take care of his body, so I am hoping he won't has a late season swoon this year as he did last year. Currently he is tied for 5th in the NL with 25 RBI, a pace that could seehim nab 113 on the year.

6.David Wright has been terrible, which only means things can get better. I know I cannot think rationally when it comes to David (I think he finally has reached and surpassed HoJo as my favorite player ever), but he has to be better in the last 120 games. I mean, he is hitting .234 on the year and is on pace for only 72 RBI and a whopping 180 strikeouts. I realize he had 72 RBI and 140strikoeuts in 2009, but that was on a team with Jeff Franceour and Fernando Tatis protecting him for most of the year. This team is light years ahead of that team, so the thought is that he will rebound. He has to. 20 homers and 100 RBI are his staple.

7. I think Carlos Beltran is having a solid, if not spectacular season that will allow us to get something good in return come the summer. I have never been a believer (I'm sorry, I know I need to get over it, but not taking the bat off your shoulder in 2006 will always get at me) so it will be nice if he can somehow help this team move on (after all, his contract has been an albatross for approaching 3 years now)

8. A minority share in the team will be sold hopefully in the next month - Jon Heiman of SI.com is reporting that the bids have been pretty strong so far, which by all means is a good sign that people believe in the potential of the team, ballpark and city.

9. It could be worse - we could be the Dodgers.

10. Finally, the best reason for optimism? Blind faith. I have nothing else going on with my sports life than the Sounders. As a Mets fan, I have to have faith. It's just in my blood.