Talking Mets Trades

This entry is in response to my boy Jason's comments from two days ago...

Let me start this entry by saying that every Mets fan wants to see the team succeed with David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran each on the team. We want this team to win. We want them to win with them. That is the bottom line.

However, one thing has become apparent over the past few years - we are not going to win with the three of them. There is a stink around this team and it starts with the core. I am in no way suggesting that they are not quality players. I am in on way suggesting that they can't lead a team to the playoffs. I am in no way suggesting that I want them to go. I just think this is the time. A change of scenery is needed for them and we need to move on.

Ok, so now that that is out of the way, let me say one more thing. I cannot think rationally about David Wright. When I say that the foundation needs to be torn down, I am speaking about Reyes and Beltran, not Wright. I know it is not healthy. I know it is the same thing I make fun of Mariners' fans for, but I love David too mugh to want to see him go. In my opinion, he needs to stay and form a new foundation with Ike Davis.

With that being said, let's take a second to visit the possibilities. Mark Polishuk
at MLB Trade Rumors has presented 6 teams that would be interested if Wright was to go on the market. Given his affordable contract and his age, I think Sandy Alderson would have to be blown out of the water with an offer before sending him elsewhere. To me, we would need to at least get a young pitcher already in the majors, a top hitting prospect and a top pitching prospect plus some picks. Simply put, he is the only one of the three without any question marks (well, that is of course if you don't count his streakiness).

Carlos Beltran, on the other hand is full of question marks. We all know the story. After playing an average of 149 games in his first 4 seasons in Flushing, he has played a total of 145 games over the past two years. In 2009 he sat out 70 straight games after June 22 with a knee injury. The 'rushed' him back even though they were well out of the race. He played in September but then in the offseason had knee surgery without telling the team. He then was out until July of 2010, came back and injured his knee again in the last week of the season.

We knew that this would be Beltran's last season in NY. We also knew we wouldn't be in contention, so the ideal situation coming into the season would have been for him to stay healthy until July and show that he can still swing the bat. I read somewhere that the reason Beltran was so agreeable to move to RF was that he is fully aware of his mortality as a baseball player. Somewhere over the past two years he was able to swallow his pride and realize that he is not a centerfielder. He was able to realize that his next contract was as a DH in the American League.

In Spring Training, he was barely able to play more than 2 games a week. Things looked to be coming to a sad end for the man who we signed to a 7 year deal before the 2005 season. And then something happened - he got healthy and started to have a great first quarter of the year. The Mets have now played 37 games...Beltran has started 31 of them. Thanks to his 3 HR, 6 RBI effort last night, he is currently sitting at .295 with 8 HR and 24 RBI. Most importantly, his knee looks healthy. So far, so good. If the trading deadline was today, I think he might actually be able to bring a good prospect or two.

Here's the problem - he has a full no-trade contract so the situation is going to have to be perfect in order for him to move. Alderson is going to want to get something for him before he leaved in free agency, but the bargaining power certainly won't be in his hands. The best case scenario would be if Boston or the Yanks are struggling at the plate and in danger of not making the playoffs. I think they would overpay, but that's about it. Sandy certainly does not have the power with this one.

So that brings us to Jose Reyes. When healthy he is one of the premier leadoff men in the game. He is one of the best all-around players. AND he is the heart and soul of this team. the problem over the past few years though is that he has been injury prone and not himself. I think every Mets fan would pay him his 7 year $120 million contract (that some are suggesting he will be looking for) if we could guarantee that he would be healthy for 5 full seasons. We just know that won't be the case and I don't think we can take that risk.

However, there are many teams out there that would be willing to take the risk. I think the key is who Reyes gets traded to. If he goes somewhere as simply a rental player, then we obviously will get less in return. If he goes somewhere and signs a contract extension, then we all of a sudden would have more bargaining power. The two teams I keep on hearing in discussions are the San Franciso Giants and the Cincinnati Reds. Both teams need a leadoff man and both teams need a shortstop. I think both would be great locations for Reyes as the media and fan scrutiny would be gentler.

But what about the Mets? Would a trade with either team help us? Simple answer: I think so. Cincinnati has a deep, deep farm system. Former Reds GM Jim Bowden suggested a package of SP Homer Bailey, minor league SS Zack Cozart AND one of their top catching prospects. That is a pretty sweet deal. San Francisco, on the other hand, has a poor farm system outside of Brandon Belt and Zach Wheeler, but they do have a lot of young major league pitching talent. They probably wouldn't trade Bumgarner, but 28-year old Jonathan Sanchez could be enough to get it done if combined with Wheeler. Either way, I think these are two good destinations that could net the Mets 85 cents on the dollar - if of course, he is willing to sign a long term deal. I have my doubts as to whether SF would put that kind of money down, but Cincy most likely would.

Still, Reyes is on pace for 223 hits, 53 doubles, 26 triples and 53 stolen bases. He is bound to come back to Earth a little, but barring any sort of major slump or injury, his value will only continue to be increase. Who knows...there might even be a team (not names the Yankees or Phillies) lying in the weed waiting to give us a Godfather offer for him. I would hate to see him go because he has been a part of this team for close to a decade...but the long term success may actually depend on him.

So there you have it. I think trading both Reyes and Beltran can get us some value assets back. The problem is that prospects often don't work out...and they always work out less with the Mets. Anyone who is traded for Reyes is going to replace one of the favorite Mets of all time...he is going to have to be a stud in order for the fan base to forget there one-time son.

It is going to be hard to get rid of 2 (or even all three of them), but I think it needs to be done.