Who Do Sounders Protect?

On Wednesday, Portland and Vancouver will take part in the 2010 MLS Expansion Draft. Both teams will be choose a total of 10 players from current MLS teams, who are allowed to protect 11 players. Current teams are not allowed to lose more than 2 players and it is widely assumed that the Sounders will have the best talent available because of their depth. All Sounders' blogs will have a post dedicated solely to who should be protected and JerseySounder is no different. Over the past two years we have grown to love our players and losing two of them to our biggest rivals is going to hurt. Speculating on who it might be is helping some cope with the inevitable.

Before I get into my picks, I wanted to give a little history on MLS Expansion Drafts. Since 1997, there have been five Expansion drafts (2004-RSL, Chivas; 2006-Toronto; 2007-San Jose; 2008-Seattle; 2009-Philly) and 60 players chosen of which, Midfield (25) and Defense (21) have been the most popular positions. Of the 60 players, only 57% of the picks started at least one game for their new team and only 35% started more than 15 games. Of all the positions, 47% of Defenders started at least 15 games compared to 28% of Midfielders.

The various expansion teams had very different strategies heading into the draft. Of the ten Toronto selections, only 1 wore the Red that season as the team used the picks to make trades with other teams. On the other hand, all 10 Philly selections saw the field for the Union this year. As for Seattle, the Sounders got Jaqua, Sturgis, Parke, Vagenas, Riley, and Evans.

The tough thing about picking who to protect is that we don't know who is out of contract and who is looking to go overseas. In the past, expansion teams have taken chances on players who were looking to move to Europe (Sea- Parke, SJ-Goodison, Tor-Jaqua) hoping a change of scenery might convince them to stay. I don't think we have any of those guys, but we might have some players whose contracts are up - maybe Marshall, Vagenas?

With that being said, let's get to it. I asked my boy J-Will to give me his picks as well to see how much we agree. As it turns out, it appears that 7 players are obvious choices - Alonso, Montero, Zakuani, Fernandez, Parke, Hurtado, Ianni. The 8th player we both agreed on was Nathan Sturgis. He may not be flashy or even start for us next year, but he is a solid player who rarely seems rattled. And for $69k he is would be very, very attractive to Portland and Vancouver. The 9th player we agreed on was someone who I originally was torn on - Leo Gonzalez. It's not that I don't like Leo, it's just that outside backs are expendable and I assumed his salary to be high. Turns out he is only on the books $72k which would make him also very attractive. So there you go - 9 players who we agree on.

The final two players were the first two differences we had. My tenth pick was Kasey Keller. A few weeks ago I wondered aloud if we might take the chance to leave him unprotected. After all, we know for a fact that he would retire rather than going to our rivals. Still, I wouldn't put it past Portland to pick him just to piss us off. And while Vancouver is going to lean towards younger players, a one-year flier on Keller, even at $300k might make him attractive. In my mind, we just can't risk it - he is our heart and soul and we have no backup plan for next year if we didn't have his rights anymore. John, on the other hand, felt that he has lost a lot of steps and while he is certainly one of the top ten goalies in the league, he thinks his on field performance can be replaced. He thinks Keller would make a great assistant coach/back-up goalie if we can get a younger version.

For me, the final slot then came down to 5 players - Evans, Riley, Nyassi, Seamon, Fucito. I really like what the future might hold for Seamon and Fucito, but the fact remains that Seamon is still raw and other teams might not know his potential because of the limited action he saw. And really, I think either team could get comparable talent in the college draft. Fucito also has great upside, but unfortunately for Sounders he is not unknown, having scored several goals for the club. However, something just tells me that neither team will bite on a 5'8" player from Harvard.

As for Riley, both John and I think he is expendable. He is a great guy and he has a manageable salary ($76), but I think we can go elsewhere in the league to get a replacement. Losing James wouldn't hurt us terribly. That leaves Nyassi and Evans. I love Brad and hope that he is with us next year. But the reality is he is coming off another injury plagued year and his salary ($123k) is just high enough that neither team will want to select him. That leaves Nyassi as my 11th selection. He was a player who as late as July I thought needed to go. Obviously getting some goals changed my opinion of him, but really the deciding factor was his youth (21) and his salary ($40k). There is just too much potential for such a small price. I think Vancouver would LOVE to draft him. John on the other hand says that while he is "faster than a taco bell shit", he only recently learned to look up before he shanks his cross. Clearly this will not be an easy task.

If you look closely, you will notice the big name not on my list is Mr Blaise Nkufo. I was one of the biggest Nkufo supporters last year, but I just cannot justify protecting a 35-year old striker who is getting paid a crap-ton ($480) for 4 goals. He brings a lot to the team, but if we lose him, it will be an opportunity for us to sign a creative midfielder to run the show (Schelotto anyone?). His wife is from Vancouver, so that would be attractive to him I'm sure, but I just don't see the Whitecaps going in that direction. Remember, this is a team that values their academy. They basically gave up on the 2010 USL season when they released their leading scorer to make room for some younger players with better potential. We might just be able to dangle him with no bites.

Ok, that was a lot of fun. I have been looking forward to writing that for a long time now. For all you Sounders fans out there, let me know what you think. Here is a link of salary information for your information.