I hope everyone had a pleasant holiday with your families. Mine was especially nice this year, but I am glad to get back to blogging. The holiday is officially over so it's time to get back to work. This goes doubly for the Huskies, who have both a key basketball game against Oregon St on Thursday at 6pm and a nationally televised Alamo Bowl game against Baylor at the same time.
Both games are important to the sports program, but I think the basketball game is the more important of the two. I know beating Baylor and Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III would be a great way to not only end 2011 but gain momentum going into 2012, but I don't think it is a must-win game. I had a hunch heading into last year's game against Nebraska that the Dawgs were going to step up and get the win - there were just too many signs - but this year feels a lot different. Whereas Nebraska was upset at being bumped to the Holiday Bowl to play a team they had already beat, Baylor is genuinely excited to have been invited to the Alamo Bowl. The reason is simple - it's Baylor. It's not exactly the most decorated football program, having played in only 8 bowl games in the past 30 years. Oh, and one other reason - Baylor has RG3.
I don't think many Huskies fans are expecting a win - not with our porous defense. I think a lot of fans are happy to be going to a second straight bowl game, even if it is not a New Years Day Bowl. Don't get me wrong, beating the newly crowned Heisman winner on national television would certainly be great for recruiting and morale. It would signal that indeed UW football has turned the corner. BUT, a loss won't cripple the program.
On the other hand, a loss on the hardwood would be disastrous. I'm sorry, I know Oregon St has been impressive in their first 11 games (9-2), but this is a team that Huskies should and need to beat, especially at home (OSU only has 1 win against a RPI Top 100 team, so take the 9 wins with a grain of salt). The Huskies are one of the most talented, if not THE most talented team, in the conference, but so far they have been incredibly underwhelming, limping into the conference schedule with a 6-5 record (RPI: 107). Losses to Duke and Marquette showed what they could become, but losses to St Louis, Nevada and South Dakota St exposed their flaws. Talent alone will certainly win games, but this team just seems to be lacking something. Their three leading scores are underclassmen. Their three captains have been non-existent. Their frontcourt is led by a guy who can't stay on the court and when he is on the court can't get out of his own way. And their most talented player is a freshman who is expected to leave for the NBA at the end of the season, who can't play with their second best player, who turns the ball over way too much and who just appears to be a wrong fit. Ok, maybe 'wrong fit' is a little too much, but he certainly isn't buying into the team concept like other big name recruits have.
UW needs to win either the conference regular season or conference titles. With a 6-5 out of conference record (which should go to 7-5 after playing Seattle U), I think they will need to go at least 13-5 in PAc-12 play plus win 1 or 2 games in the tournament to be in the dance. That would put them with a record of roughly 22-11. A loss to Oregon St would make things really tough. They get a nice break with avoiding a trip to the Bay Area, but I could see either Cal or Stanford picking up a win at Hed Ec when they visit in late January. I think they will probably drop 1 game on the road in Oregon and could possibly lose both games on the road at USC and UCLA late in the year. Add in potential road losses in Tucson and the Pullman and suddenly this team is looking at their 5-6 conference losses. If this holds true, that means every other game must be a win. Thus, the importance of the conference opener against Oregon st.
It is a shame that both games will be on at the same time tomorrow night as each deserve my attention. When faced with simultaneous start times, I will be watching the Alamo Bowl simply because there will be no more football until September. BUT, I will be keeping a close eye on the more important of the two - the home tilt against the Beavers.
Bow Down.
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