Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Best Case Beltran Trade Scenario's

My boy JWM asked me to write on what my preferred Carlos Beltran trades would be - specifically, he asked that I "be specific; no maybe they'll get some draft picks or prospects. Tell me which prospects you would look at and what type of pick. Or give the top deals you want made as a fan (more on the unrealistic side) and the top deals you think could actually happen (realistic)."

So here's the thing - nothing annoys me more than reading posts about trading Daniel Murphy, Scott Hairston and Fernando Martinez to St Louis for Albert Pujols. Unrealistic trades rumors do nothing for me. So I will only attempt to rank my top realistic trades...

The problem with that is that unfortunately I know little to nothing about prospects from other organizations, so I will only go with some rumors that I have heard.

A few notes before we begin. First, pitching is more important to me than hitting. I read one writer suggest that since pitching will be abundant in the next few years that they should focus on hitting instead. I couldn't disagree more - they need pitching because they don't have any in the organization outside of Matt Harvey and Jennry Mejia who is out for the entire year. Second, trading him out of the division would be preferable. I mean, even if he goes to Philly it will only be a rental, but still...he'll be in Philly. Third, even though Adam Rubin is reporting that none of the interested teams will be giving up their top prospect, I am going under the impression that someone will panic and pull the trigger.

Without further ado, here is my list:
  1. San Francisco for top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler (#57 in 2011 Baseball America pre-season prospects). In order to do this trade as with many others, they will have to eat all of Beltran's salary. He fits all my criteria - 20 year old pitcher, outside of the division.

  2. Atlanta for top pitching prospect Mike Minor (#37). Beltran might be staying within the division, but Minor is a lefty who is already in the big leagues and could help instantly.

  3. Atlanta for top pitching prospect Julio Teheran (#5). Again, Beltran stays in the division, but I don't think Alderson would blink an eye. Teheran is a 19 year old right handed pitcher ranked as the #5 prospect. The only reason Minor ranks above him is the immediate impact he would make as compared to Teheran who is likely to come up late 2012.

  4. Philadelphia for top outfield prospect Domonic Brown (#4). This doesn't exactly fit any of the critiera - Beltran stays in the division and they don't get an arm, but with Beltran gone, Pagan soon gone and Bay simply lost, they need someone to challenge Fernando Martinez, Lucas Duda and Jason Pridie.

  5. Texas for top pitching prospect Martin Perez (#24). Perez is 19 years old and a lefty. Texas is in the AL. It would be a perfect trade for the Mets, but probably the most unrealistic of the bunch. While Texas is all of a sudden crazy deep with pitching, they are not going to mortgage the future. AND Texas is in the AL, so Beltran likely won't waive his no-trade clause.
Other teams being mentioned are Boston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cleveland. Realistically, he won't be going to either of the AL teams because of his stated preference to stay in the NL. He also won't be going to Pittsburgh because they are not offering prospects but rather to pay his salary. I have no idea what Milwaukee has left to offer.

So where does he end up going? No one knows right now, but the theory I like the most is that Philly buckles and gives up their best prospect not named Dom Brown. They are probably feeling pretty good about where they sit right now, but I don't think they can sit back at the deadline and not add a bat. I am not sold on Hunter Pence or BJ Upton being the guy, so Beltran is the obvious fit. It would be the last move in a season where all their chips are all in. The team is built to win in the short term and this would push them over the top. A World Series title is definitely worth it.

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