Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Re-Evaluating Carlos Beltran

I have always been the first person to get on Carlos Beltran's case. No matter how well he played, in my mind he never earned the 7 year, $119 million contract that he signed in 2005. And yet today, with the news that Beltran was officially traded to San Francisco for RHP prospect Zach Wheeler, I can't help but feel a little sad. (btw - check out my previous entry to see how even a bling squirrel sometimes finds a nut)

It's not entirely surprising. I mean, we always value those in our lives more once they are gone. I always took Beltran for granted and now that he is gone, I am re-thinking my stance on him.

The bottom line is this - Beltran ranks as probably one of the top 3 position players in Mets history. He ranks 17th in number of games played, yet is 6th in home runs, doubles, rbi, on-base percentage and slugging. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, he is 2nd, ahead of Wright, Piazza, Reyes and trailing only Strawberry. While his first season was below standards (.266, 16 hr, 78 rbi) over the course of the first four seasons he averaged 29 hr, 104 rbi, 21 sb, hit .275 and won 3 Gold Gloves. His best season was 2006 when he had 41 hr, 116 rbi, 38 doubles and .594 slugging.

Unfortunately, the 2006 was not only his best season in Queens, but also the season when he didn't swing. All Mets fans know what I'm talking about - down 3-1 with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 of NLCS, Beltran struck out looking. Looking back, it is unfair to blame the loss on him (after all, they could only muster 2 freaking hits off of Jeff Suppan through 7 innings), but at the time it stung. Hell, it still stings. I mean, the 97-win Mets choked against a team that barely had a winning record during the regular season. The Mets took over NYC during the regular season and had the chance to turn the tides on the Yankees and they choked. The image of Beltran looking remains in my memory to date.

In all, it is just a microcosm of Beltran's time in Queens. No matter what he did, I always wanted more. In addition to stellar play on the field, he never got in trouble off of it and he never lashed out at the press. in reality, he did everything we could have asked for him. yet at the end of the day, I always felt like he wasn't trying, that he didn't care and that he never wanted to be the face of the franchise. When things were going good, he was there. When things turned south, only Wright was willing to step up.

On top of his effort, his personality just never did it for me. We always talk about certain players not being able to handle NYC. When Beltran signed, some suggested he wouldn't be able to last because all he knew up to that point was Kansas City and Houston. Yet others predicted success because of his faith and solid family life. It turned out that he was totally able to handle the city. He was quiet, respectful and never got flustered. And yet, he never had the personality of a Hernandez, Dykstra, Backman or any other member of the eclectic 1986 Mets.

Of course you knew I was going to mention the 86 Mets. It will always be the measuring stick for all Mets teams, yet it is so unfair because there will never be another team like this. Never will that blend of personalities be able to succeed. Never will a team be able to abuse drugs, alcohol and women in another way. Never. And yet, we want all our teams to be like them. The 2000 Mets came the closest and yet they couldn't get by the Yanks. The 2006 Mets had the chance but they blew it. And Beltran got blamed.

So what is the final word on Beltran's tenure in NYC? In one word: incomplete. Beltran helped lead the team to the NL East crown. You can count the number of division crowns on one hand, so in a way, his signing was well worth it. Yet, with all the talent and hope, he never led the team past the NLCS. Hell, he never led them to the playoffs again and then had season altering injuries in 2009 and 2010.

Coming into the season, the best case scenario was for Beltran to remain healthy, play well and get traded at the deadline. He not only did both, but he also agreed to move to RF to avoid a controversy. He did everything that was asked of him and in return, he is going to get another decent contract and the Mets were able to get a highly touted pitching prospect. Again, he did all that was asked of him, the only difference now is that I am content with it.

Best of luck in San Fran, Carlos. Thanks for your 7 years in blue and orange.

5 comments:

  1. Bling Squirrel? Sounds like something TMZ would report on.

    -East Coast JWill

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  2. It's the right move to do at this point. The Mets aren't going to the playoffs. Also, most importantly, this is a guy who's knees have been described as "bone on bone". That sounds like a time bomb waiting to explode. He's also 34 now and on the downside of his career. Now he's an above average right fielder, not a great centerfielder. He doesn't steal bases any more (in his last 162 games, he has a total of 6). We signed this guy in 2005 because he was a younger 5 tool player that didn't have any weaknesses. 7 years later, he's an older 3 tool player with a history of injuries. I appreciate everything he's done, but management can't keep this guy around because of his merits from the past.
    -C. Stebbins

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  3. Oh, totally agree. No way suggesting that we want him back. He did what he needed to do this year - he came back healthy and is having a very nice year.

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  4. One question about the trade: while it seems like they landed a great pitching prospect who is only 1-2 years away from the starting rotation, is he more valuable than the compensation draft picks the mets would have received by not trading him and letting someone else overpay? I'm sure he'll get something along the lines of $12M/year from someone, so doesn't that translate into at least 2 supplemental picks or am I missing something fundamental about this system?

    That said, I think this trade worked well for them and I would have gladly made it were I in the same position. This will let them build up for success in 2013/2014.

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  5. I read somewhere that Boras actually wrote it into Beltran's contract that the team would not get any compensatory draft picks when he left town. Seems like it could be true as it would certainly make him more valuable to sign.

    Now, if they do get draft picks for him (not sure the above is true), then you raise a good question. Some teams thrive off of these picks - look at the Red Sox for instance who are willing to use their money to sign draft picks out of slot.

    This was the thinking that I heard from one of the talking heads on ESPN - if they were to go this route, then they would not get the draft picks until the June 2012 draft. The players would not sign until July/August. Then they would start low A ball well at the end of the year. We're talking 2015 by the time they even get a shot at the big leagues.

    Wheeler is projected to be up by 2013. Assuming that Harvey is up by then and Mejia returns from arm injury, they all of a sudden have a nice, young rotation alongside of Niese. Hopefully one of them evolves into an ace.

    Those are my thoughts at least.

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