I have always been the first person to get on Carlos Beltran's case. No matter how well he played, in my mind he never earned the 7 year, $119 million contract that he signed in 2005. And yet today, with the news that Beltran was officially traded to San Francisco for RHP prospect Zach Wheeler, I can't help but feel a little sad. (btw - check out my previous entry to see how even a bling squirrel sometimes finds a nut)
It's not entirely surprising. I mean, we always value those in our lives more once they are gone. I always took Beltran for granted and now that he is gone, I am re-thinking my stance on him.
The bottom line is this - Beltran ranks as probably one of the top 3 position players in Mets history. He ranks 17th in number of games played, yet is 6th in home runs, doubles, rbi, on-base percentage and slugging. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, he is 2nd, ahead of Wright, Piazza, Reyes and trailing only Strawberry. While his first season was below standards (.266, 16 hr, 78 rbi) over the course of the first four seasons he averaged 29 hr, 104 rbi, 21 sb, hit .275 and won 3 Gold Gloves. His best season was 2006 when he had 41 hr, 116 rbi, 38 doubles and .594 slugging.
Unfortunately, the 2006 was not only his best season in Queens, but also the season when he didn't swing. All Mets fans know what I'm talking about - down 3-1 with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 of NLCS, Beltran struck out looking. Looking back, it is unfair to blame the loss on him (after all, they could only muster 2 freaking hits off of Jeff Suppan through 7 innings), but at the time it stung. Hell, it still stings. I mean, the 97-win Mets choked against a team that barely had a winning record during the regular season. The Mets took over NYC during the regular season and had the chance to turn the tides on the Yankees and they choked. The image of Beltran looking remains in my memory to date.
In all, it is just a microcosm of Beltran's time in Queens. No matter what he did, I always wanted more. In addition to stellar play on the field, he never got in trouble off of it and he never lashed out at the press. in reality, he did everything we could have asked for him. yet at the end of the day, I always felt like he wasn't trying, that he didn't care and that he never wanted to be the face of the franchise. When things were going good, he was there. When things turned south, only Wright was willing to step up.
On top of his effort, his personality just never did it for me. We always talk about certain players not being able to handle NYC. When Beltran signed, some suggested he wouldn't be able to last because all he knew up to that point was Kansas City and Houston. Yet others predicted success because of his faith and solid family life. It turned out that he was totally able to handle the city. He was quiet, respectful and never got flustered. And yet, he never had the personality of a Hernandez, Dykstra, Backman or any other member of the eclectic 1986 Mets.
Of course you knew I was going to mention the 86 Mets. It will always be the measuring stick for all Mets teams, yet it is so unfair because there will never be another team like this. Never will that blend of personalities be able to succeed. Never will a team be able to abuse drugs, alcohol and women in another way. Never. And yet, we want all our teams to be like them. The 2000 Mets came the closest and yet they couldn't get by the Yanks. The 2006 Mets had the chance but they blew it. And Beltran got blamed.
So what is the final word on Beltran's tenure in NYC? In one word: incomplete. Beltran helped lead the team to the NL East crown. You can count the number of division crowns on one hand, so in a way, his signing was well worth it. Yet, with all the talent and hope, he never led the team past the NLCS. Hell, he never led them to the playoffs again and then had season altering injuries in 2009 and 2010.
Coming into the season, the best case scenario was for Beltran to remain healthy, play well and get traded at the deadline. He not only did both, but he also agreed to move to RF to avoid a controversy. He did everything that was asked of him and in return, he is going to get another decent contract and the Mets were able to get a highly touted pitching prospect. Again, he did all that was asked of him, the only difference now is that I am content with it.
Best of luck in San Fran, Carlos. Thanks for your 7 years in blue and orange.
Showing posts with label beltran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label beltran. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Best Case Beltran Trade Scenario's
My boy JWM asked me to write on what my preferred Carlos Beltran trades would be - specifically, he asked that I "be specific; no maybe they'll get some draft picks or prospects. Tell me which prospects you would look at and what type of pick. Or give the top deals you want made as a fan (more on the unrealistic side) and the top deals you think could actually happen (realistic)."
So here's the thing - nothing annoys me more than reading posts about trading Daniel Murphy, Scott Hairston and Fernando Martinez to St Louis for Albert Pujols. Unrealistic trades rumors do nothing for me. So I will only attempt to rank my top realistic trades...
The problem with that is that unfortunately I know little to nothing about prospects from other organizations, so I will only go with some rumors that I have heard.
A few notes before we begin. First, pitching is more important to me than hitting. I read one writer suggest that since pitching will be abundant in the next few years that they should focus on hitting instead. I couldn't disagree more - they need pitching because they don't have any in the organization outside of Matt Harvey and Jennry Mejia who is out for the entire year. Second, trading him out of the division would be preferable. I mean, even if he goes to Philly it will only be a rental, but still...he'll be in Philly. Third, even though Adam Rubin is reporting that none of the interested teams will be giving up their top prospect, I am going under the impression that someone will panic and pull the trigger.
Without further ado, here is my list:
So where does he end up going? No one knows right now, but the theory I like the most is that Philly buckles and gives up their best prospect not named Dom Brown. They are probably feeling pretty good about where they sit right now, but I don't think they can sit back at the deadline and not add a bat. I am not sold on Hunter Pence or BJ Upton being the guy, so Beltran is the obvious fit. It would be the last move in a season where all their chips are all in. The team is built to win in the short term and this would push them over the top. A World Series title is definitely worth it.
So here's the thing - nothing annoys me more than reading posts about trading Daniel Murphy, Scott Hairston and Fernando Martinez to St Louis for Albert Pujols. Unrealistic trades rumors do nothing for me. So I will only attempt to rank my top realistic trades...
The problem with that is that unfortunately I know little to nothing about prospects from other organizations, so I will only go with some rumors that I have heard.
A few notes before we begin. First, pitching is more important to me than hitting. I read one writer suggest that since pitching will be abundant in the next few years that they should focus on hitting instead. I couldn't disagree more - they need pitching because they don't have any in the organization outside of Matt Harvey and Jennry Mejia who is out for the entire year. Second, trading him out of the division would be preferable. I mean, even if he goes to Philly it will only be a rental, but still...he'll be in Philly. Third, even though Adam Rubin is reporting that none of the interested teams will be giving up their top prospect, I am going under the impression that someone will panic and pull the trigger.
Without further ado, here is my list:
- San Francisco for top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler (#57 in 2011 Baseball America pre-season prospects). In order to do this trade as with many others, they will have to eat all of Beltran's salary. He fits all my criteria - 20 year old pitcher, outside of the division.
- Atlanta for top pitching prospect Mike Minor (#37). Beltran might be staying within the division, but Minor is a lefty who is already in the big leagues and could help instantly.
- Atlanta for top pitching prospect Julio Teheran (#5). Again, Beltran stays in the division, but I don't think Alderson would blink an eye. Teheran is a 19 year old right handed pitcher ranked as the #5 prospect. The only reason Minor ranks above him is the immediate impact he would make as compared to Teheran who is likely to come up late 2012.
- Philadelphia for top outfield prospect Domonic Brown (#4). This doesn't exactly fit any of the critiera - Beltran stays in the division and they don't get an arm, but with Beltran gone, Pagan soon gone and Bay simply lost, they need someone to challenge Fernando Martinez, Lucas Duda and Jason Pridie.
- Texas for top pitching prospect Martin Perez (#24). Perez is 19 years old and a lefty. Texas is in the AL. It would be a perfect trade for the Mets, but probably the most unrealistic of the bunch. While Texas is all of a sudden crazy deep with pitching, they are not going to mortgage the future. AND Texas is in the AL, so Beltran likely won't waive his no-trade clause.
So where does he end up going? No one knows right now, but the theory I like the most is that Philly buckles and gives up their best prospect not named Dom Brown. They are probably feeling pretty good about where they sit right now, but I don't think they can sit back at the deadline and not add a bat. I am not sold on Hunter Pence or BJ Upton being the guy, so Beltran is the obvious fit. It would be the last move in a season where all their chips are all in. The team is built to win in the short term and this would push them over the top. A World Series title is definitely worth it.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Wednesday Morning Mets Ramblings
The last time I wrote a column discussing how fun this current Mets team is, they team then proceeded to go on a losing streak. So if history is an indication, this column could be a bad idea. I am unfazed though for one simple reason -no matter what warts this team has, they continue to fight and they continue to exceed expectations. I have to hand it to Sandy Alderson - he made a good hire in Terry Collins. I don't know if Collins should be the man moving forward, but he has been a nice change of pace from the previous two regimes. This team is playing with pride and a never say die attitude. When you think about it, it's a perfect Mets team. We have consistently choked over the past 20 years when we were the favorites, loaded with talent. Even when we were successful it never felt as good as supporting a team overlooked by the media that proved everyone wrong. Yankees fans might be good rooting for the favorites, but as Mets fans we need to support the underdog...we need to believe.
With that being said, I am halfway believing that we can make some noise in the Wild Card chase. I'm not sure we can win it, but I think we can be playing some meaningful games in September. It's not that I don't think this team can continue winning, it's just that it's a team in transition. Normally if we were sitting at 42-40, fans would be calling for management to trade our prospects to get a big bat or arm so that we could win this year. This year is a little different - some are calling for trades, but for once they are not irrational requests. Instead, most fans want the team to trade Beltran and K-Rod...some (like myself) are even asking for management to trade Jose Reyes. I am far enough removed from NY that I don't listen the FAN and I don't read the local newspapers, but I can't imagine Mets fans are getting too caught up in the 2011 team. I hope that they all know that we are playing with house money this year and that 2012 should really be our focus.
I'm not saying we should entirely give up on this season, but I don't think we need to add big name players to continue to be successful. It would be one thing if we had our full lineup and were two games over .500. Maybe I would feel differently about our prospects, but the fact is that while we are maximizing our talent with the current team, we have guys within our organization that can step in and continue winning games. I'm talking Jason Bay, David Wright, Ike Davis and Johan Santana (remember those guys??).
Right now the Mets are winning with good pitching, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and a different guy every night - Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada or Angel Pagan. Reyes has been out of this world, but I don't need to tell you that. The April-June 2011 version of Reyes is even more than we all could have hoped for. The problem is that he is a free agent at the end of the year and injury prone. There is no one in the game that compares to Reyes - he is a talent like none other. Conventional wisdom says you don't let a guy like this go, but to me, his injury problems can't be ignored. I have written about this in the past - I just feel like we're damned with whatever we choose to do. If we let him walk he'll become a star someplace else. If we re-sign him he will probably get hurt. In the end, I think we need a change and with Reyes playing at an MVP level, he might be able to bring us some good parts in return. The question we need to ask ourselves though is do we have a suitable replacement? I think the answer is yes - while Ruben Tejada will never be the second coming of Jose Reyes, I think he can be above average replacement who can play good defense and hit 7th in the lineup and maybe someday even 2nd. As for replacing Reyes in the leadoff spot, Angel Pagan has shown that he can do a fine job in the past. Again, it's not Reyes, but it's not terrible.
I have been the first to harp on Beltran in the past, but I will be the first to admit that he has been amazing this year. Did you know that he currently leads the team in games played this year? That's right...Carlos Beltran. Simply amazing. With 13 HR, 24 doubles, 57 RBI and a .283 average, he definitely deserves to be an All-Star. The problem with Beltran of course is the same with Reyes - he is a free agent at the end of the year and an injury risk. The difference is that he is 5 years older. He certainly won't be back with the team next year (although I would take him back for a reasonable salary of say $4million) so the obvious move is to trade him. Some think we won't be able to get much for him considering his huge salary and history of bad knees, but I think some team will panic come August and send us some good prospects (of course, if not, he can stay with the team and we can get two draft picks once he signs elsewhere). As for replacing Beltran in the lineup, we have a guy named Jason Bay who is more than capable than pulling his weight. It might be wishful thinking considering how terrible he has been in his two seasons with the Mets, but he is starting to warm up -since June 15 he is hitting .347 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. IF, and I know it's a big IF, Bay can come around, then we have a nice replacement for Beltran.
When we start thinking about Wright and Davis coming back, we need to think about how it is going to effect the team. If both are healthy, Collins would be nuts to start unsung heroes Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda over them, but I wonder what effect it will have. Part of me thinks that you don't mess with something good, but it's not like Wright and Daivs are divas. They are hard workers who want to win above all else, so I think their re-introduction would be a positive thing (of course we might not see Davis again this year so who knows). The only thing Collins will need to do is figure out how to get Murphy and Turner some at-bats. They will probably platoon at second base and provide the occasional bat off the bench but their real worth will be at first (if possible). Duda has shown some promising moments, but overall he is still not where he needs to be. Murphy and Turner could continue to see time there.
So there you have it - I just talked myself into trading both Reyes and Beltran all while continuing to flourish on offense. I mean, compare our line-up now: Reyes-Turner-Beltran-Murphy-Bay-Pagan-Thole-Tejada to what it could be after the deadline: Pagan-Murphy-Wright-Davis-Bay-Tejada-Thole-Martinez. It's not the worst thing...
As for pitching, who knows what we'll get out of Johan (or if we should even bring him back this season), but you have to think his introduction into the rotation would be a good thing. I don't want to take anything away from the current guys, but Santana is not someone you throw in the bullpen so that Chris Capuano can continue to get in games. While Pelfrey would be the guy to move based on performance, I don't think they would do it because of what a headcase he is. So I think its Capuano who gets moved to the 'pen, which would then allow us to move Izzy or Tim Byrdak as reports are suggesting. I don't know if we can get anything for either of them, but they are not longterm guys, so why not kick the tires a little? As for K-Rod, we don't have a closer in waiting (some suggest Parnell might be that guy but I don't know), but he needs to go. Trading him might hurt the team on the field, but it is a necessary move to help cleanse the clubhouse and organization of the stank that has been over them for a few years. They got rid of Perez and Castillo in the offseason - now it's K-Rod's turn.
I'm not sure if I was coherent in any way, but those are my rambling thoughts on the Mets before I go on vacation. I am enjoying supporting them this year even if they lost 4 of 6 do the effing Yankees, but I do realize that this isn't their team moving forward. We need to make some moves with 2012 in mind...amazingly though I think we have the within house to remain competitive for the rest of this season. All I know is that it is going to be an interesting few months.
With that being said, I am halfway believing that we can make some noise in the Wild Card chase. I'm not sure we can win it, but I think we can be playing some meaningful games in September. It's not that I don't think this team can continue winning, it's just that it's a team in transition. Normally if we were sitting at 42-40, fans would be calling for management to trade our prospects to get a big bat or arm so that we could win this year. This year is a little different - some are calling for trades, but for once they are not irrational requests. Instead, most fans want the team to trade Beltran and K-Rod...some (like myself) are even asking for management to trade Jose Reyes. I am far enough removed from NY that I don't listen the FAN and I don't read the local newspapers, but I can't imagine Mets fans are getting too caught up in the 2011 team. I hope that they all know that we are playing with house money this year and that 2012 should really be our focus.
I'm not saying we should entirely give up on this season, but I don't think we need to add big name players to continue to be successful. It would be one thing if we had our full lineup and were two games over .500. Maybe I would feel differently about our prospects, but the fact is that while we are maximizing our talent with the current team, we have guys within our organization that can step in and continue winning games. I'm talking Jason Bay, David Wright, Ike Davis and Johan Santana (remember those guys??).
Right now the Mets are winning with good pitching, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and a different guy every night - Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada or Angel Pagan. Reyes has been out of this world, but I don't need to tell you that. The April-June 2011 version of Reyes is even more than we all could have hoped for. The problem is that he is a free agent at the end of the year and injury prone. There is no one in the game that compares to Reyes - he is a talent like none other. Conventional wisdom says you don't let a guy like this go, but to me, his injury problems can't be ignored. I have written about this in the past - I just feel like we're damned with whatever we choose to do. If we let him walk he'll become a star someplace else. If we re-sign him he will probably get hurt. In the end, I think we need a change and with Reyes playing at an MVP level, he might be able to bring us some good parts in return. The question we need to ask ourselves though is do we have a suitable replacement? I think the answer is yes - while Ruben Tejada will never be the second coming of Jose Reyes, I think he can be above average replacement who can play good defense and hit 7th in the lineup and maybe someday even 2nd. As for replacing Reyes in the leadoff spot, Angel Pagan has shown that he can do a fine job in the past. Again, it's not Reyes, but it's not terrible.
I have been the first to harp on Beltran in the past, but I will be the first to admit that he has been amazing this year. Did you know that he currently leads the team in games played this year? That's right...Carlos Beltran. Simply amazing. With 13 HR, 24 doubles, 57 RBI and a .283 average, he definitely deserves to be an All-Star. The problem with Beltran of course is the same with Reyes - he is a free agent at the end of the year and an injury risk. The difference is that he is 5 years older. He certainly won't be back with the team next year (although I would take him back for a reasonable salary of say $4million) so the obvious move is to trade him. Some think we won't be able to get much for him considering his huge salary and history of bad knees, but I think some team will panic come August and send us some good prospects (of course, if not, he can stay with the team and we can get two draft picks once he signs elsewhere). As for replacing Beltran in the lineup, we have a guy named Jason Bay who is more than capable than pulling his weight. It might be wishful thinking considering how terrible he has been in his two seasons with the Mets, but he is starting to warm up -since June 15 he is hitting .347 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. IF, and I know it's a big IF, Bay can come around, then we have a nice replacement for Beltran.
When we start thinking about Wright and Davis coming back, we need to think about how it is going to effect the team. If both are healthy, Collins would be nuts to start unsung heroes Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda over them, but I wonder what effect it will have. Part of me thinks that you don't mess with something good, but it's not like Wright and Daivs are divas. They are hard workers who want to win above all else, so I think their re-introduction would be a positive thing (of course we might not see Davis again this year so who knows). The only thing Collins will need to do is figure out how to get Murphy and Turner some at-bats. They will probably platoon at second base and provide the occasional bat off the bench but their real worth will be at first (if possible). Duda has shown some promising moments, but overall he is still not where he needs to be. Murphy and Turner could continue to see time there.
So there you have it - I just talked myself into trading both Reyes and Beltran all while continuing to flourish on offense. I mean, compare our line-up now: Reyes-Turner-Beltran-Murphy-Bay-Pagan-Thole-Tejada to what it could be after the deadline: Pagan-Murphy-Wright-Davis-Bay-Tejada-Thole-Martinez. It's not the worst thing...
As for pitching, who knows what we'll get out of Johan (or if we should even bring him back this season), but you have to think his introduction into the rotation would be a good thing. I don't want to take anything away from the current guys, but Santana is not someone you throw in the bullpen so that Chris Capuano can continue to get in games. While Pelfrey would be the guy to move based on performance, I don't think they would do it because of what a headcase he is. So I think its Capuano who gets moved to the 'pen, which would then allow us to move Izzy or Tim Byrdak as reports are suggesting. I don't know if we can get anything for either of them, but they are not longterm guys, so why not kick the tires a little? As for K-Rod, we don't have a closer in waiting (some suggest Parnell might be that guy but I don't know), but he needs to go. Trading him might hurt the team on the field, but it is a necessary move to help cleanse the clubhouse and organization of the stank that has been over them for a few years. They got rid of Perez and Castillo in the offseason - now it's K-Rod's turn.
I'm not sure if I was coherent in any way, but those are my rambling thoughts on the Mets before I go on vacation. I am enjoying supporting them this year even if they lost 4 of 6 do the effing Yankees, but I do realize that this isn't their team moving forward. We need to make some moves with 2012 in mind...amazingly though I think we have the within house to remain competitive for the rest of this season. All I know is that it is going to be an interesting few months.
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