The last time I wrote a column discussing how fun this current Mets team is, they team then proceeded to go on a losing streak. So if history is an indication, this column could be a bad idea. I am unfazed though for one simple reason -no matter what warts this team has, they continue to fight and they continue to exceed expectations. I have to hand it to Sandy Alderson - he made a good hire in Terry Collins. I don't know if Collins should be the man moving forward, but he has been a nice change of pace from the previous two regimes. This team is playing with pride and a never say die attitude. When you think about it, it's a perfect Mets team. We have consistently choked over the past 20 years when we were the favorites, loaded with talent. Even when we were successful it never felt as good as supporting a team overlooked by the media that proved everyone wrong. Yankees fans might be good rooting for the favorites, but as Mets fans we need to support the underdog...we need to believe.
With that being said, I am halfway believing that we can make some noise in the Wild Card chase. I'm not sure we can win it, but I think we can be playing some meaningful games in September. It's not that I don't think this team can continue winning, it's just that it's a team in transition. Normally if we were sitting at 42-40, fans would be calling for management to trade our prospects to get a big bat or arm so that we could win this year. This year is a little different - some are calling for trades, but for once they are not irrational requests. Instead, most fans want the team to trade Beltran and K-Rod...some (like myself) are even asking for management to trade Jose Reyes. I am far enough removed from NY that I don't listen the FAN and I don't read the local newspapers, but I can't imagine Mets fans are getting too caught up in the 2011 team. I hope that they all know that we are playing with house money this year and that 2012 should really be our focus.
I'm not saying we should entirely give up on this season, but I don't think we need to add big name players to continue to be successful. It would be one thing if we had our full lineup and were two games over .500. Maybe I would feel differently about our prospects, but the fact is that while we are maximizing our talent with the current team, we have guys within our organization that can step in and continue winning games. I'm talking Jason Bay, David Wright, Ike Davis and Johan Santana (remember those guys??).
Right now the Mets are winning with good pitching, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and a different guy every night - Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada or Angel Pagan. Reyes has been out of this world, but I don't need to tell you that. The April-June 2011 version of Reyes is even more than we all could have hoped for. The problem is that he is a free agent at the end of the year and injury prone. There is no one in the game that compares to Reyes - he is a talent like none other. Conventional wisdom says you don't let a guy like this go, but to me, his injury problems can't be ignored. I have written about this in the past - I just feel like we're damned with whatever we choose to do. If we let him walk he'll become a star someplace else. If we re-sign him he will probably get hurt. In the end, I think we need a change and with Reyes playing at an MVP level, he might be able to bring us some good parts in return. The question we need to ask ourselves though is do we have a suitable replacement? I think the answer is yes - while Ruben Tejada will never be the second coming of Jose Reyes, I think he can be above average replacement who can play good defense and hit 7th in the lineup and maybe someday even 2nd. As for replacing Reyes in the leadoff spot, Angel Pagan has shown that he can do a fine job in the past. Again, it's not Reyes, but it's not terrible.
I have been the first to harp on Beltran in the past, but I will be the first to admit that he has been amazing this year. Did you know that he currently leads the team in games played this year? That's right...Carlos Beltran. Simply amazing. With 13 HR, 24 doubles, 57 RBI and a .283 average, he definitely deserves to be an All-Star. The problem with Beltran of course is the same with Reyes - he is a free agent at the end of the year and an injury risk. The difference is that he is 5 years older. He certainly won't be back with the team next year (although I would take him back for a reasonable salary of say $4million) so the obvious move is to trade him. Some think we won't be able to get much for him considering his huge salary and history of bad knees, but I think some team will panic come August and send us some good prospects (of course, if not, he can stay with the team and we can get two draft picks once he signs elsewhere). As for replacing Beltran in the lineup, we have a guy named Jason Bay who is more than capable than pulling his weight. It might be wishful thinking considering how terrible he has been in his two seasons with the Mets, but he is starting to warm up -since June 15 he is hitting .347 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. IF, and I know it's a big IF, Bay can come around, then we have a nice replacement for Beltran.
When we start thinking about Wright and Davis coming back, we need to think about how it is going to effect the team. If both are healthy, Collins would be nuts to start unsung heroes Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda over them, but I wonder what effect it will have. Part of me thinks that you don't mess with something good, but it's not like Wright and Daivs are divas. They are hard workers who want to win above all else, so I think their re-introduction would be a positive thing (of course we might not see Davis again this year so who knows). The only thing Collins will need to do is figure out how to get Murphy and Turner some at-bats. They will probably platoon at second base and provide the occasional bat off the bench but their real worth will be at first (if possible). Duda has shown some promising moments, but overall he is still not where he needs to be. Murphy and Turner could continue to see time there.
So there you have it - I just talked myself into trading both Reyes and Beltran all while continuing to flourish on offense. I mean, compare our line-up now: Reyes-Turner-Beltran-Murphy-Bay-Pagan-Thole-Tejada to what it could be after the deadline: Pagan-Murphy-Wright-Davis-Bay-Tejada-Thole-Martinez. It's not the worst thing...
As for pitching, who knows what we'll get out of Johan (or if we should even bring him back this season), but you have to think his introduction into the rotation would be a good thing. I don't want to take anything away from the current guys, but Santana is not someone you throw in the bullpen so that Chris Capuano can continue to get in games. While Pelfrey would be the guy to move based on performance, I don't think they would do it because of what a headcase he is. So I think its Capuano who gets moved to the 'pen, which would then allow us to move Izzy or Tim Byrdak as reports are suggesting. I don't know if we can get anything for either of them, but they are not longterm guys, so why not kick the tires a little? As for K-Rod, we don't have a closer in waiting (some suggest Parnell might be that guy but I don't know), but he needs to go. Trading him might hurt the team on the field, but it is a necessary move to help cleanse the clubhouse and organization of the stank that has been over them for a few years. They got rid of Perez and Castillo in the offseason - now it's K-Rod's turn.
I'm not sure if I was coherent in any way, but those are my rambling thoughts on the Mets before I go on vacation. I am enjoying supporting them this year even if they lost 4 of 6 do the effing Yankees, but I do realize that this isn't their team moving forward. We need to make some moves with 2012 in mind...amazingly though I think we have the within house to remain competitive for the rest of this season. All I know is that it is going to be an interesting few months.
food for thought: pujols is a free agent after this season as he still hasn't been signed in st louis to a new contract. I think he might end up sticking around the gateway to the west when all is said and done, but what about the possibility of offering him something like 8 years/$250,000,000?
ReplyDeleteI know the mets have some money issues now but this is one of the best hitters the game has seen. ever. I'd imagine he can sell some tickets and increase the value of the team, making it a better looking investment to potential buyers.
or has this already been discussed 7000 times and I'm just really late to the party?
I honestly haven't heard any grumblings about this. Not that Mets fans wouldn't necessarily want it, but because it is NOT going to happen. There is no way Sandy Alderson gives out that kind of money - he was brought on to build this team and be financially responsible. He is not going to be sucked into longterm deals.
ReplyDeletePlus, we have our future 1b in Ike Davis, so of all the areas, 1b is not the greatest need. It might be heresy to suggest that we would rather have Davis than Pujols, but that is kind of the position we're in right now.
The other thing with Pujols is that he is going to decline. It is going to happen (if it doesn't then he will go down as the BEST player this game has ever seen) and whoever pays his contract will be paying for the past 10years and not for what he is worth moving forward.
Before the injury I would have said for sure that he was going to the Cubs, but now I'm not as sure. I think a lot will depend on how he responds to the injury -if there is any question then I think the Cards have the upper hand and will be able to sign him for a discount.
Not a bad idea considering previous regimes, but I just don't see Alderson doing it.
Nice read. I think you're diminishing the value of Beltran and Reyes though. If Pagan and Bay represent your replacement players, you have some tremendous gaps. Plus, you can't even make the argument that those guys are going to be more reliable from a health standpoint either. Bay and Pagan have both sat out over 20 games this year. And they have both missed significant time in 2009 (Pagan) and 2010 (Bay).
ReplyDeleteIn addition, you mention the focus should be on 2012. But to do what? Let's say they let go of K-Rod and Beltran. You also have to figure out how to replace other free agents like Capuano. Yeah, he's not expensive, so you can replace him monetarily, but you're not necessarily going to get the on field performance he has given us. I mean, at this point he's probably their #3 or #4, and solid at that.
The other elephant in the room is Mr. Wright. He isn't the same guy since he got beaned in the head a few years back. I just pulled up some numbers and it's pretty striking.
In 2008 and 2009 (prior to getting hit), he batted .310 and struck out once every 5.4 plate appearances. Since being hit in 2009, he has batted .265 and struck out once every 4 plate appearances. If you go by percentages, he gets hits 15% less often, and he's striking out 26% more often. His other numbers are similarly down. If 2008-pre beaning = David Wright at 100%, then post-beaning has yielded a David Wright at 80% of what he was, more or less.
In terms of statistical significance, the pre and post numbers were based on 1214 and 963 plate appearances, respectively. So not exactly a fluke.
We've basically lost our franchise player, at least the one that we all knew and loved.
just curious... what kind of fan support is there for wright at this point? I know that living in queens I should probably be the one to answer this myself...
ReplyDeleteanyway, he has obviously fallen from grace statistically, but is he still held high in the fans' eyes? I don't think he has value as a trade piece because, as mentioned before, he just hasn't been very good since 2009 (by the way, I loved the trends showing the increase in strikeouts and decrease in hits - stats analysis at its best). that said, does he actually have any value to the mets? obviously the emotional connection to the fans is important but does he provide anything to the make up of the team, intangible though it may be?
if the answer is yes, what about moving him from 3rd to the outfield (or make him a total utility player - unless that undermines his confidence even more and makes him even less effective) and then bringing in a new third baseman or shifting davis to 3rd and going after a super star 1st baseman? I understand this one in particular will be paid for his last 10 years but should still offer quite a return for the next 5, at least. and I still say that pujols means something meaningful to the ownership situation in flushing. he would sell tickets, he would help sell the team to investors (even with his soon-to-be massive contract) and makes the team much more relevant locally, rather than the best thing about the mets is that citi field is a great place to go eat.
otherwise, beltran is a hugely valuable trade piece now that he's healthy and almost out of his contract. his absence will be the biggest key to rebuilding the team the way you mentioned above.
I will continue to admit it - I can't be objective with Wright. He is my favorite player of all time and I just can't see this team without him. That being said, I live in Seattle and although I read blogs on a daily basis, I have no sense of what he means to other fans. I think most are in denial because he was the face of the franchise and when things were going bad, he was still there for us and not nursing some sort of injury. I think his injury right now brings down his value, but it is interesting to think about his trade value. because he has an extra year on his contract at not much money (relatively) I think he is probably worth more than Reyes.
ReplyDeleteAs I told Stebbins' in an email response, everyone is striking out more in 2011 than they did in past years. It quite simply is the year of the pitcher, so I try to talk myself out of the strikeouts especially since in 2010 he hit .283 with 29 homers with 103 rbi and 19 stolen bases. His career averages (162 games) are .302, 27/106/23 so really besides the strikeouts he is giving us what he always gives us....
Regarding Pujols- it's not happening. Ownership can't afford him. Ike is our 1B. He's not going to move to third. The other thing is this: Why would a player like Pujols want to come to the Mets? He's always been on winning teams. He owns STL right now. Plus, Citifield is proving to be futile for HR hitters. I just don't see that guy coming here.
ReplyDeleteWright? With the re-emergence of Reyes combined with Wright's terrible year, I think the fans like the guy, but I think we're much clearer on who our franchise needs to be built around (Reyes). A couple of years ago I considered him "The Mets' Jeter." But that thought has sort of gone away a bit. You can't be Jeter if you're not producing or winning.
So what's my solution? Keep on developing from within and play the game right. The Mets don't have to get to the playoffs every year if the fans see an up and coming team that plays hard every night. I think of it like the '82 or '83 rosters. Very young with some missing pieces still. Once they realized that they had a young core (Darling, Gooden, Sid, Strawberry, etc), they then went out and got key pieces (Knight, Carter, Ojeda, etc). I think that's the way they should approach it. Take stock in what they have (without thinking about playoffs), and add key pieces if they determine the young guys can win.